‘Moreno’s time’ that Ohtani can never interfere has come, PO probability 25.1%

The time to think about whether to raise the hope of fall baseball or not is getting closer.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the contours of advancing to the playoffs (PO) have been revealed to some extent when looking at the point of digesting 25% of the entire schedule and the ‘strong team and both teams’ dichotomy.스포츠토토

As of the 15th (Korean time), no one believes that Tampa Bay, which is leading the overall with 31 wins and 11 losses, will not be able to advance to the PO. On the other hand, the Oakland Athletics, who finished last with 9 wins and 33 losses (0.214), should be seen as giving up fall baseball early.

The team that draws keen attention to whether or not to advance to the PO this season is definitely the Los Angeles Angels. Because the Shohei Ohtani trade is at stake.

The logic behind deciding whether to sell Ohtani is simple. If the Angels see PO hope, they’ll keep it until the end, and if not, they’re very likely to sell it ahead of the August 1 trade deadline.

However, in mid-May, the Angels’ PO probability doesn’t seem very high. The Angels fell into a two-game losing streak by kneeling 3-4 in an away game against the Cleveland Guardians that day. At the beginning of the 9th inning, behind 1-4, the other line showed concentration and chased by 1 point, but could not exert more force.

The Angels, who recorded 21-20, fell from 2nd to 3rd in the AL West. They are 4.5 games away from the Texas Rangers, who are leading the league, and are 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees, who are 6th in the AL wild card rankings and 3rd in the cutoff.

However, it is absolutely not a situation to give up the PO already. The club has no intention of doing so, and there is no clear indication that it will.

However, it is unavoidable that last year’s nightmare comes to mind. The Angels were second in the division with 24 wins and 17 losses in 41 games played last year. After leading until May 17, he fell to second place on the 18th, and the difficult race continued after that. In particular, from the Texas game on May 26 to the Boston Red Sox on June 9, the team fell into the pit of 14 consecutive losses, the most since the team was founded. The win rate collapsed in the 50% range, and after that, it fell to the 3rd and 4th place due to frequent consecutive losses. In the end, the Angels finished the season in 3rd place in the district with 73 wins and 89 losses, failing to advance to the playoffs for the 8th consecutive year.

It is true that the signs are not good this year. The Angels won 5 consecutive wins until the game against Texas on the 6th, and marked +5 games with a win rate of 50%, rising to the top of the district for a while. However, since then, it has returned to the downward trend with 2 wins and 6 losses in the last 8 games until the match against Cleveland on this day. During this period, the team’s batting average was 0.254, the average score was 4.25 points, and the team’s ERA reached 6.43. Mound anxiety is noticeable, but there is nothing to cover the starting pitcher and bullpen.

Ace Ohtani was also uneasy with an ERA of 6.00 in his last three starts. In this situation, it is difficult to be optimistic about entering PO. Things are worse than last year. Fangraphs suggested the Angels’ PO probability as 25.1% as of this day. The probability of winning the district is 9.5%, and the probability of wild card is 15.5%. It means, in effect, to drop out.

It is difficult to know the thoughts of the owner of Art Moreno, but the local media generally sees a high possibility of a trade.

ESPN reporter Jeff Passan said on a broadcast last month, “There is one number we need to look at when talking about Ohtani’s future. That is the performance of the Angels.” “It’s not going to be traded. But if it falls behind the competition, as it has over the past five years, Ohtani could be traded. He’s obviously leaving the team.”

At the same time, he emphasized, “It is foolish not to let Ohtani go even though the Angels are behind in the competition.”

There are opposing opinions. New York Post columnist John Heyman said on the 21st of last month, ‘According to multiple sources, the chances of the Angels trading Ohtani this season are zero. Moreno and his entourage have not given up hope of tying Ohtani to a long-term contract. Therefore, trade is impossible.”

Owner Moreno said in an interview with Sports Illustrated in March, when spring training was in full swing, “I’m telling you officially. We won’t trade Ohtani if ​​we’re competing for PO.” It is difficult to say for sure that Ohtani can be traded during the season if the PO possibility is slim, but at least it is interpreted that Ohtani will not insist on the ‘no’ trade.

‘Moreno’s time’, in which Ohtani, the person involved, cannot interfere, has just begun.

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